IN a race between the virus and vaccination, how the public acts now will depend on whether future restrictions are needed, the health minister has said.

At a Welsh Government press briefing on Monday, June 21, health minister Eluned Morgan was joined by Dr Chris Jones, Deputy Chief Medical Officer, to give an update on the stark reality in Wales.

With fears over the Delta variant rising, coronavirus restrictions were extended for a further four-weeks to allow for more vaccinations.

However, when asked about the likelihood of another lockdown or future restrictions, Ms Morgan said what happens next depends on how the public responds.

She said there are ‘clear guidelines in place’ and if people follow the suggestions, then that would ‘help the situation’.

She said winter is a ‘long way away’ yet and at ‘some point we will have to learn with the virus’ but Welsh Government will not make promises they cannot keep and instead, will follow the data.

She went on to say that compared to February, people in Wales have ‘considerably more’ freedoms but these can only be continued if the public follow the rules.

Ms Morgan said although it is clear we will have to learn to live with the virus, it is safer to do so when people are double vaccinated.

Dr Chris Jones said there are a range of future scenarios which are possible. He said we are at another ‘critical phase’ in the pandemic which is characterised by ‘a lot of uncertainty’.

He said there is emerging evidence that two vaccine doses remain 90 per cent effective against the new variant but at the moment we need to ‘hold tight and see how things are going’.

Dr Jones added it was a race between the virus and vaccination and a cautious approach is ‘appropriate’.

Looking at the modelling, the worst-case scenario could see more cases than in the January peak- but they are not anticipating as many hospital admissions.

There is evidence that the rate of hospitalisation is lower than seen previously but based on England and Scotland, they seem to be younger in age and a lower oxygen requirement, but some people are still sadly dying.

Dr Jones said Wales is in the pre-peak phase of a third wave and is around two or three weeks behind England and Scotland but modelling in the far future is ‘more difficult’ due to uncertainties like vaccination efficiency and public behaviour.

He said we could have a ‘very sizeable third peak, possibly larger than January’.

When asked about compulsory vaccines, Dr Jones and Ms Morgan said there are no plans to introduce that yet but talks have been ongoing.

Dr Jones said they are not keen on introducing compulsory vaccines, they would much rather go down the route or people coming forward because it is the right thing to do.

When asked about closing the borders between England and Wales, the health minister said there are people who work in England or live in England and work in Wales so essential travel has always been allowed.

But she added closing the borders completely would be ‘extremely difficult’ and they ‘want to welcome people to Wales’.

She said they are encouraging visitors to take a test and follow the rules in Wales.

Dr Jones said Ministers wo not want to restrict people and only do so to protect them from harm.

The Delta variant:

Dr Jones said the Delta variant was first identified in India in October, known as the Indian variant until later renamed.

The first cases in Wales were linked to clusters in Cardiff in early May.

Up until the end of May there were relatively low numbers of the variant but since then, more and more unlinked cases have been seen.

The latest information shows there are now 579 confirmed cases in Wales. It is moving quickly and is in all parts of Wales.

There is evidence of spread in communities and this is driving an increase in rates.

4 out of 5 new cases are caused by this variant.

It is a highly transmissible form, more so than the Kent (Alpha variant) which caused the winter peak.

It is not known whether this will cause an increase in hospital admissions and deaths.

There have been 12 hospital admissions because of Delta which is likely to rise, he said.

Dr Jones said Wales is at the beginning of a third wave and is two to three weeks behind England.

In Scotland, the risk of hospitalisation because of Delta if you are not vaccinated is doubled.

Dr Jones added around two thirds of people admitted to hospital in England were not vaccinated compared to 11% who were. Around 73 have died in England after contracting the Delta variant.