EXPERTS have warned there could be a shortage of 1,600 care home beds in North Wales within the next decade.
The alert has been raised by specialist business property adviser Christie & Co, who says there is a growing need for new “future-proof” care homes to meet the need.
It predicts the total deficit for Wales will be 10,000 beds, at a time when demand is spiralling upwards, with the over-85 population set to double in the next 20 years.
Care Forum Wales warned that the country was “sleepwalking into disaster” because the growing shortage of care home beds would pile pressure on the beleaguered NHS when hospitals were already virtually at breaking point.
Christie & Co also revealed in a report that 40 elderly care homes in Wales closed and only four opened between 2020 and 2023 – with no new ones in North Wales.
Care Forum Wales chair, Mario Kreft MBE, said: “The report from Christie & Co paints a bleak picture and illustrates how the existing crisis is going to get even worse, creating a double-whammy for our overstretched hospitals which have rows of ambulances queuing outside and patients on trolleys in corridors.
“Instead of being able to build more care homes to meet growing demand, we are seeing more and more care home closures.
“The cost of building new care homes and replacing the beds we are losing now is absolutely eye-watering.
“Our public finances in Wales are already under pressure, so where is this money coming from?
“All we want is fairness, in line with Welsh Government’s ‘Let’s agree to agree’ guidance.
“We need a national approach to eliminate this iniquitous postcode lottery so that the people for whom we provide care and our staff are treated fairly.
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“This is too important to be left to local authorities and health boards alone – it has to be driven by Welsh Government.”
In response to Mr Kreft’s comments, a Welsh Government spokesperson said: “The commissioning of care home beds is a matter for local authorities and health boards.
“This includes assessing, planning, and commissioning services to meet local need, and where necessary pooling funds to ensure best use of resources.
“We are working to strengthen these regional partnership through new legislation and guidance, including a new National Framework for the Commissioning of Care and Support.”
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